Friday 30 December 2016

Value Pick India December 2016

Fundamental Pick

Dynemic Products
BSE: 532707

Technical Pick

Atlas Cycle Industries

Kohinoor Foods

Expert Value Picks

Siyaram Silk Mills
Recommended By
- Dolly Khanna
- Kanchan Sunil
- Amarjeet S Maurya of Angel Broking
- Mrinalini Chetty and Siddhartha Khemka of Centrum
- Kshitij Kaji of Edelweiss

Daljeet Singh Kohli
- Shilpa Medicare

Porinju Veliyath
- AurionPro Solutions
- Datamatics
- HCL Info
- RS Software
- TVS Electronics
- Vedavaag

Way2Wealth Brokerage 

CMP - Target

Tatamotors 470- 610rs

Icici Bank 254-- 337rs

PNC Infra 105--142rs

Canfinhome 1514--2200rs

Maruti 5350--6100rs

CESE 630--750rs

Navneet edu 110--135rs

Deccan cement 950--1250rs

Fiem ind 1130--1475rs

IFGL refra 165--220rs

Techno electric 300-445rs

Apar ind 575-- 705rs

Niit Ltd 80--103rs

Mirza ind 85--119rs

Mold tech pack 191-- 260rs

Natco pha
rma 590--750rs

Pidilite ind 590--770rs

Havells 335--386rs

HDFC bank  1200--1307rs

Crisil 2220--2600rs

Escort 298-- 345rs

Equitas 140--345rs

Mannapuram fin cmp 64--105rs

Yes Bank 1150--1500rs

Bharat Forge 900--1050

Mindtree 525--650

Bharatfin 602--750rs

Thursday 29 December 2016

How To Make Money In Stock Market



Our Courses On Fundamental And Technical Analysis :

Monday 26 December 2016

Resistance Break required Nifty May Turn Bullish For Some Time

Read full analysis before you take any decision,

Saturday 22 October 2016

Free Course Fundamental Analysis Of Stocks

My new course "Fundamental Analysis Of Stocks". It'll remain free for few days for my subscribers to join. Please click the link and join the course free of charge.

Monday 16 May 2016

Shilpi Cables All Set For Upside

Stop Loss 66 Trail SL Weekly Based On Last Week's Closing

Shilpi Cable Technologies
BSE: 533389 | NSE: SHILPI

Balance Sheet :

Income Statement :

Friday 26 February 2016

Fundamental Analysis Of Stocks | Things You Should Know

Books :
One Up On Wall Street : Amazon, FlipKart
How To Make Money In Stocks : Amazon, FlipKart

Things To Look For On Balance Sheet

  1. Growing Net Worth
  2. Less or no debt. 25% of equity (Net Worth) is acceptable.

If company is taking debts for expansion

  • Look for secured debts. Secured debts are taken against assets.
  • Unsecured debts are debts taken against earning power of business.
  • If unsecured loans are rolling in, dig deeper and find more about expansion plans, order book and market conditions.
  • If you want to remain on safe side, don't invest in company that doesn't match first two conditions of list.

On Profit Statement look for

  1. Increasing Net Sales Turnover
  2. Earnings Per Share

Keep eye on men of importance

  • CEO, CFO, Promoter, Financial Advisor, Board Of Directors, Marketing Team and Reputation Management Team

Tuesday 16 February 2016

Book Review "Eat That Frog - Brain Tracy"

This video was created for my opinion blog but I am also posting it on my investing blog. If you are not interested in opinion blogs don't press subscribe button present in video.

Amazon Link : 
Flipkart Link :
Transcript :
Hi guys Nrupen here, on 16th January means last month I went to Sharekhan Investor Training Seminar, where on my earnings, savings and investing score card I took 18/30, it was concluded that I actually know and actively try my best to learn manage and grow money.

I also take action but I fail big time, money comes at door and returns because of failed execution resulting in bad financial situation. I agreed to conclusion, time and time again I suffer from failed execution of my plans.

Due to which my financial condition isn't well nor my business is growing and failure is sitting on my head since last 5 years. They recommended me to read book, “Eat That Frog” by “Brian Tracy”. They claimed this book will help me improve my time management plus plan execution.

The sales page of book also claims to increase productivity and doubling or tripling the income in a month or two. I completed the book in 5 days and implemented whatever I learned for 20 days. So in this video I'll  present review of this book based on last 20 days of implementation.

The book have total 21 chapters. Chapter 1 and 2 are on scheduling and creation of task list. Chapter 3 to 10 are on execution of tasks in your list. Chapter 11 to 17 are on improving your overall performance and rest chapters are again on execution and implementation of plans.

In short the book tells everyday when you wake up you have 2 batteries. Battery of Time and Battery of Will Power, they are interdependent and how you use them finally gives you ability to perform more in less time or the opposite.

Battery of Time keeps same amount of charge no matter what you do, but same doesn't apply to Battery of Will Power.

It may or may not have similar amount of charge, it always discharges fast, it depletes itself horrifyingly fast on first few tasks you perform and requires regular recharges sometimes multiple times a day.

Brian tells, to make your Battery of Time perform better, you have to make sure you make proper use of your Battery of Will Power. He insists to always provide highest priority to the most difficult and most creative task.

For example, tasks like checking your facebook profile or emails doesn't require lot of Will Power but your office job does.

If checking facebook and emails are first things you do every morning, then for sure you have wasted precious power from your Battery of Will Power, now you won't be able to use it on other important tasks without recharging.

Wasting your Will Power on tasks that doesn't require it is main reason why you procrastinate and always have less time to get important jobs done.

The title of book is "Eat That Frog" actually means complete the most difficult task first because it actually requires complete power from your battery of Will Power. The books teaches how to use your Will Power battery to get important jobs done and still retain most of the charge for your both batteries.

Note that I used battery analogy for sake of explanation. The book doesn't use battery for analogy it uses frog. Book starts with goal setting with time. It recommends to set yearly, monthly, weekly and daily goals.

Task scheduling is better than scheduling method that I used since last 3 years, I changed my scheduling approach to method explained in the book and so far it has worked pretty good.

If you think task scheduling is as simple as planing list of tasks then you are wrong. Just making list isn't everything and hence people even after making list fail to complete even one task on it.

Task scheduling and execution method of book advocates linear approach which may or may not apply to everyone.

Brain tells to focus more on completion of task in hands without bothering about its results and time. He tells completing task makes you feel proud about yourself and hence you should do it. It'll also help in building your self respect.

I have big disagreement with his this point of view. Just completing task doesn't make you happy or feel proud about yourself.

When completed task actually ends up with results you were expecting then it makes you feel proud of yourself. Completed tasks with no expected results make you feel terrible and ashamed of yourself.

It may seem like I am Mr Nobody to say that but believe I am telling you from my personal experience. My first business venture was selling Children Monitoring softwares and porn blocking softwares to parents so that they can keep eye on their children's on line activities.

I took affiliation from companies who used to develop these tools. Profit margin was less and even products were limited so I decided to better switch to a product review website. It also worked fine for  3 months then someone logged a complaint against it claiming reviews to be fraudulent.

After inquiry nothing was found because no review was fake, I had permissions for all reviewed products from manufactures or their associates and also the consumers. But the damage has been already done, it failed to generate revenue afterwards leading to its end.

Later I met a guy named Mahesh who told me he work as personal analyst and gets massive commissions on his client's profits. I liked the idea and started reading books on investing, attended lot of seminars and even got help from Ventura and Way To Wealth brokerage firms.

Investing was nothing like the way it was marketed. I met some good people and they arranged me 3 clients but before signing a contract they wanted to see how good I can perform. I gave them my services for 3 months and they were ready to sign me in.

But then SEBI dropped bomb and made registration for personal analyst very tough. They made it mandatory to have net worth of 25 lakh or post graduate in finance, accounting or business. I don't have anything from them neither post graduate nor 25 lakh.

I worked with a firm who promised to find loop hole in rules to get me registration but there weren't any loopholes. I had training, knowledge, support and even clients but no money to get registration.

Every single failure bought me lot of pain and hatred towards myself. In these 5 years my friends got jobs, got promoted, fell in love and even got married. And I only kept working on my business plans without results and not even got time to visit their marriages.

I thought these small sacrifices will yield something good for me but they only bought lot of anger and hatred. Without results completion of tasks leaves you angry and shattered.

So trust me when you select a difficult path for yourself theoretical beliefs has to be kept aside and you have to be practical. So how was my experience so far applying methods, well the book first asks you to set 3 goals you want to accomplish this year in less than 30 seconds.

I came up with Make full time income Online and Lose weight to get in shape. Can't come up with 3rd may be I am too frustrated. Surprisingly I couldn't place my Cement and Paint business on list though I wake up everyday to sell them.

May be I am very unhappy with kind of people I have to meet while on field. By the way I am getting more job done than before. I managed to get and attained more appointments in last 3 week than previous 2 months but my order book still sucks, no profitable quantity was sold.

May be I have even doubled or tripled my profit but can't figure out because anything multiplied by zero still remains a zero. Its been long time, may be 4 to 5 months I haven't seen any profits rolling in due to bad market conditions.

May be I am sitting with a bad luck, on 12th Feb rumors of 5000 sq ft area would be made compulsory for construction project works hit market. And since then not only appointments dropped to zero but we even stopped receiving small orders.

I can not fix market conditions, I have no control over them. By the way I decided to give more time on my video blogs because the first thing that I want is to make full time income online.

At present I own two video blogs, one on Techno Fundamental Value investing and second is Opinion Blog on which you are watching this video.

Opinion video blogs are most hated genre but I am going with it because it gives you chance to find people who think just like you. Armored Skeptic, I think is most hated opinion blog on YouTube but still he is awesome at its best.

I love shows that are weekly in format than daily, so for my shows too I'll prefer weekly schedule. There'll be 2 video formats first is like the one you are watching, second is in form of comic story.

The name of show is True Story, it'll have foolish characters and wanna be smart characters discussing topics and they'll present my point of view or little stupidity. First episode of True Story will go live on my YouTube channel on Saturday.

I have prepared my schedule to upload at least 1 video every week on my opinion blog. If you like online shows you can subscribe and I can hope you to like them.

I expected better executions but it is too soon to say our executions improved or not. Again for sure we are getting more things done in less time so be sure time management stuff do work. I'll spend whole year implementing whatever I learned in this book, consider it as an experiment. You can subscribe to see experimentation in action.

By the way it was good read, if you need recommendation, you can buy it. Your time management skill will surely improve. It wouldn't take more than a week to find out you are getting more job done in less time.

To know how well your plan executions has became you may have to wait. In case you want to buy it amazon and flipkart links are below this video. So go and buy.

I'll see you in my next video on Saturday, till then.

Thanks for watching and have a nice day.

Monday 18 January 2016

Market May See End Of Bearishness Opinion and Breakdown

Following image represents 60 min chart of Nifty. A huge divergence is formed, Nifty spent full week to create this divergence. There are very high chances this might end bearishness for some time.

Looking at the fact it took full week to create this divergence I am expecting strength in upside in case divergence succeeds to end bearishness.

Second image is weekly chart of Nifty. Here too w can see a kick pattern is formed in October of 2015, now all we have to wait till Nifty closes above 7600, if that happens then we can say that Market is most probably on its path to recovery and avenues for fresh investments will open.

On Investors seminar by Sharekhan we learned that market is currently trading on PE of 13-15, and whenever market reaches PE of these levels market starts recovering.

If I also consider plus points of Sharekhan Market Overlook I can say that Market is Technically and Fundamentally strong to regain upside. All it has to do is just confirm by closing above 7600.

I am not SEBI authorized Stock and Research Analyst, the blog I wrote here shouldn't be considered as research by analyst but as personal opinion.

As per SEBI (Research Analyst) regulations 2014 Article 21 : “Any person who makes recommendation or offers an opinion concerning securities or public offers only through public media is not required to obtain registration as research analyst under RA Regulations”

Sharekhan Investor Training 16 Jan 2016

Hi guys, Nrupen here and on last Saturday I attended Sharekhan's Investor Training Seminar. The seminar was presented in 3 parts.

1. Investment Basics and Investment Planning
2. Market Overlook For 2016
3. Promotional Stuff

Chirag Joshi took first and last part of seminar whereas Analysts from Sharekhan took Market Overlook.

He started with Reasons Why You Should Invest, and gave 3 reasons,

1. Beat Inflation
2. Maintain Standard Of Living
3. Plan For Retirement

Though all points were convincing enough the examples he used were really not that convincing for me, later talked with others and they also agreed example he used weren't really that good.

Practically all can admit that we usually use 5-6 % inflation rates for future price calculation of standard of living but same doesn't apply to education and medical care. When he applied 5-6 % inflation rates to them things appeared too unrealistic.

Prices of medical care and education rise at possible high rates as compared to rise in price of other stuffs required to maintain standard of living. To most parts he was right on every point but examples weren't that good.

For most part Chirag kept seminar interactive and there was active contribution. He took a little test on ability to manage and invest money and then gave conclusions based on marks.

I took 18/30, based on my marks conclusion was I actually know and actively try my best to learn  managing and growing money. I also take action but fail big time, money comes to door and returns because of failed execution resulting in bad financial situation.

I could agree more, whenever it comes to execution of plans, I mess up big time leading to bad financial situation.

Then he talked about “How To Invest”,
1. Identify your goal
2. Set time horizon
3. Quantify your goal
4. Different Investment avenues
5. Selecting Right Investment avenues

To me these points seem more theoretical because they are practical application of goal setting which typically considers goal can be achieved in steps first A then B then C and then D. In real life things doesn't always go in linear steps.

For example, you train hard to become world class athlete and then due to accident or illness you become medically weak and all your hard work ends up in drain. It is story for majority and step by step success without any problem only happens by luck and that doesn't apply to everyone.

For majority of time you just have to keep working to find opportunities or create one for yourself.

Chirag also told about advantages of PPF, SIP, Family Medical Insurance, ULIP, Term Plan and Liquid Funds.

He strongly advocated Family Medical Insurance, Term Plan and PPF. He also advised for people who can't invest in stocks themselves should opt only for SIP but shouldn't expect good returns unless ready to wait for at least 7 to 10 years.

He also advocated to learn money management and suggested 2 books to read.
Rich Dad Poor Dad
Eat That Frog

Then I took a piss break, on return second part has already started I couldn't get name of presenter but he appeared more like an analyst and was presenting, “Market Overlook For 2016”.

He started with what went wrong in year 2015 leading to fall in market. He told they also took seminar in Mumbai and people aren't happy with their investments because they suffered losses.

I was damn happy to see majority of Nagpurians shouting they made decent profits. Some said they were sitting on short positions whereas others said they bought Mid Cap and Small Cap stocks and there were also few like me who preferred Ultra Small Cap stocks.

Following are some points which he explained due to which market may see huge upside in 2016,

1. Market has always traded on PE of 13-15 and we are right now on PE of 15
2. FDI may help market.
3. High hopes on passing of GST.

Apart from these he gave some market stats that can lead to major upside. Majority of market overlook was based on predictive elements and personally I have seen enough not to take predictive elements seriously.

I am also negative on passing of GST and FDI. I am not saying market will keep falling but as per my personal opinion these elements will not become reason for market to regain its upside.

In final part Chirag came on stage and gave information about Sharekhan product and services. Along with that he added bits and pieces of fundamental and technical analysis.

When it ended I went directly to analyst panel and had some chat. First, they told me about JHS Svendgaard Laboratories stock from personal care sector. They had Proctor and Gamble as their client.

P&G left them and stock fell to Rs.5 now they are in JV with Dabur and Patanjali leading to price jump till Rs.35, as per them value unlocking for this stock has not yet began and major upside is still on way.

Then I told them my method to select stock and also told them about stock I am holding right now.

On which they gave me some more stocks and told me these stocks are commodity based stocks and they can give major upside but for that I should be able to understand how to invest in commodity based business.

Since my method focuses more on consistency than market cycle I should also try to learn more about turnarounds.

They explained me why it is difficult to find a turnaround stock in evergreen niche and suggested to look for turnarounds in commodity based business model with exit strategy.

Following are stocks they gave me and I agree with their analysis,

Bannariamman Sugars (Value hasn't yet unlocked)
Balrampur Chinni (Value unlocking just started)
EID Parrt (Forgot what they told but was good)
Goodricke Group (Value unlocking just began)

All are commodity based stocks.

What Was Good About Seminar ?

  1. Learned about few investment options, I wasn't aware of.
  2. Meeting with analyst panel.
  3. Got information to find turnarounds.

What Was Bad ?

  1. Everything was very basic, like for beginners. It felt more like basic investor education than investing training seminar.
  2. Market overview mostly took predictive analysis into consideration.
  3. For new investors the way technical analysis was presented was way too misleading.
  4. Bad examples were used for explanation during seminar.
  5. Couldn't find a very successful investor, neither in panel nor in audience.

In fact I am little disappointed because I have attended many such seminars and I do keep very high expectation. But I can't deny for first timers it was like cherry cake.

Tuesday 5 January 2016

Welspun Corp

Welcorp Trading at 116, there are almost 70% chances of Rs 40 upside, if you want to enter this Swing Trade maintain strict SL at 100. Note that price hasn't yet broken triangle, which makes it a little more than risky. This trade is not for faint heart traders.

Chart : Daily

Setup : Led Lag Follow

Risk : Rs. 16

Profit : Rs. 40

Risk Vs Reward : 2 : 5

Trade Risk : 30%

Trade Type : Swing/Positional

I assume you know,
- How to modify Stop Loss
- How to manage risk in case price fails to hit target to exit in profit.
- How to strategize or nullify or minimize risk .